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Table 2

Linear probability models predicting the effect of temperatures on birth outcomes

PTBLBWVLBWPTBLBWVLBW
Full Sample
(1)
Full Sample
(2)
Full Sample
(3)
High SES
(4)
Med SES
(5)
Low SES
(6)
High SES
(7)
Med SES
(8)
Low SES
(9)
High SES
(10)
Med SES
(11)
Low SES
(12)
Days <5°C −0.001 −0.004* −0.001 0.002 −0.009* 0.005 −0.001 −0.007* −0.004* −0.001 −0.001 −0.001 
     (0.002) (0.002) (0.000) (0.002) (0.004) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) 
Days >25°C–32°C −0.001 −0.000 −0.000 0.002 0.001 −0.005* 0.001 −0.001 −0.001 −0.001 −0.001* 0.001 
     (0.002) (0.002) (0.000) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) 
Days >32°C −0.026 0.016 0.006 −0.019 −0.033 −0.021 −0.028* 0.032 0.026* −0.003 −0.002 0.020* 
 (0.016) (0.010) (0.003) (0.013) (0.035) (0.021) (0.013) (0.029) (0.010) (0.005) (0.004) (0.006) 
N 4,314,381 4,152,395 4,152,395 1,482,984 1,146,060 1,301,743 1,446,251 1,113,128 1,248,156 1,446,251 1,113,128 1,248,156 
PTBLBWVLBWPTBLBWVLBW
Full Sample
(1)
Full Sample
(2)
Full Sample
(3)
High SES
(4)
Med SES
(5)
Low SES
(6)
High SES
(7)
Med SES
(8)
Low SES
(9)
High SES
(10)
Med SES
(11)
Low SES
(12)
Days <5°C −0.001 −0.004* −0.001 0.002 −0.009* 0.005 −0.001 −0.007* −0.004* −0.001 −0.001 −0.001 
     (0.002) (0.002) (0.000) (0.002) (0.004) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) 
Days >25°C–32°C −0.001 −0.000 −0.000 0.002 0.001 −0.005* 0.001 −0.001 −0.001 −0.001 −0.001* 0.001 
     (0.002) (0.002) (0.000) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) 
Days >32°C −0.026 0.016 0.006 −0.019 −0.033 −0.021 −0.028* 0.032 0.026* −0.003 −0.002 0.020* 
 (0.016) (0.010) (0.003) (0.013) (0.035) (0.021) (0.013) (0.029) (0.010) (0.005) (0.004) (0.006) 
N 4,314,381 4,152,395 4,152,395 1,482,984 1,146,060 1,301,743 1,446,251 1,113,128 1,248,156 1,446,251 1,113,128 1,248,156 

Notes: The table presents estimated impacts of temperature on birth outcomes during the gestational period for the full sample and by parental SES. Temperature bins are cold days (<5°C/<41°F), days in the comfort zone (5°C–25°C/41°F–77°F), warm days (>25°C–32°C/>77°F–89.6°F), and hot days (>32°C/>89.6°F); the reference bin is the comfort zone (5°C–25°C). Robust standard errors, clustered at the provincial capital level, are shown in parentheses. Coefficients, scaled by 100 to enhance readability, can be interpreted as percentage-point changes in the specific birth outcome. Each model includes fixed effects for province × year of conception, the province-specific polynomial quadratic in the century-month of conception, and the month of conception. Demographic control variables include the newborn's sex, the mother's marital status, the mother's age, age squared, whether the child is the firstborn, and the mother's ethnic origin. Contextual controls are population density, the female employment rate, the logarithm of the provincial GDP, the provincial cohort–specific share of women with a tertiary degree, and vegetation's leaf area index. Climatic controls are relative humidity, solar radiation, wind speed, and average precipitation.

*

p < .05

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