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Table 3

Marginal structural models: Effect of cumulative, long-term exposure to neighborhood police stops on high school graduation, by race/ethnicity

Difference in Effectsa
BlackLatinoWhiteB–WL–WL–B
Cumulative SQF Exposure (ref. = very low) 
 Low −0.023*** −0.024*** −0.012** 0.011 0.012 −0.001 
  (0.006) (0.005) (0.005) (0.007) (0.007) (0.007) 
 Average −0.051*** −0.041*** −0.012 0.039*** 0.029*** 0.010 
  (0.007) (0.006) (0.006) (0.010) (0.008) (0.010) 
 High −0.066*** −0.049*** −0.021* 0.045*** 0.028* 0.017 
  (0.009) (0.007) (0.010) (0.013) (0.013) (0.011) 
 Very high −0.088*** −0.047*** −0.034 0.053* 0.013 0.041* 
 (0.013) (0.010) (0.018) (0.022) (0.020) (0.017) 
Student Characteristics       
 Female 0.056*** 0.038*** 0.032*** −0.024*** −0.006 −0.018** 
  (0.005) (0.004) (0.004) (0.007) (0.005) (0.006) 
 Free or reduced lunch −0.043*** −0.032*** −0.039*** 0.004 −0.007 0.012 
  (0.010) (0.005) (0.004) (0.010) (0.006) (0.010) 
 English learner status 0.038 0.026*** 0.023*** −0.014 −0.003 −0.012 
  (0.023) (0.004) (0.005) (0.025) (0.006) (0.023) 
 ELA score at t = 0 0.048*** 0.042*** 0.013*** −0.035*** −0.029*** −0.006 
  (0.003) (0.003) (0.002) (0.004) (0.003) (0.004) 
 Math score at t = 0 0.101*** 0.110*** 0.063*** −0.038*** −0.047*** 0.009* 
  (0.003) (0.003) (0.002) (0.004) (0.003) (0.004) 
 School police stops (log) −0.015** −0.002 −0.013*** 0.002 −0.011* 0.013* 
 (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.006) (0.005) (0.006) 
Neighborhood Characteristics 
 Population size 0.004 0.004 0.007** 0.003 0.003 −0.001 
  (0.005) (0.003) (0.003) (0.006) (0.004) (0.007) 
 Residential instability 0.009 0.007 −0.002 −0.011 −0.009 0.013* 
  (0.005) (0.004) (0.003) (0.006) (0.005) (0.006) 
 Concentrated disadvantage −0.013* −0.013** −0.008 0.004 −0.004 0.000 
  (0.005) (0.004) (0.007) (0.008) (0.008) (0.007) 
 Percentage Black 0.017 −0.001 −0.031*** −0.048*** −0.030** −0.018 
  (0.012) (0.005) (0.009) (0.013) (0.010) (0.012) 
 Percentage Asian 0.000 0.002 −0.002 −0.002 −0.004 0.002 
  (0.009) (0.002) (0.002) (0.009) (0.003) (0.009) 
 Percentage Latino 0.006 0.002 −0.010 −0.016 −0.012 −0.005 
  (0.010) (0.005) (0.007) (0.013) (0.009) (0.010) 
 Percentage other −0.001 −0.004 −0.005 −0.004 −0.001 −0.002 
 (0.002) (0.003) (0.003) (0.004) (0.004) (0.003) 
Cohort and Precinct Fixed Effects ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ 
Number of Observations 85,490 109,291 36,396 231,177 231,177 231,177 
Difference in Effectsa
BlackLatinoWhiteB–WL–WL–B
Cumulative SQF Exposure (ref. = very low) 
 Low −0.023*** −0.024*** −0.012** 0.011 0.012 −0.001 
  (0.006) (0.005) (0.005) (0.007) (0.007) (0.007) 
 Average −0.051*** −0.041*** −0.012 0.039*** 0.029*** 0.010 
  (0.007) (0.006) (0.006) (0.010) (0.008) (0.010) 
 High −0.066*** −0.049*** −0.021* 0.045*** 0.028* 0.017 
  (0.009) (0.007) (0.010) (0.013) (0.013) (0.011) 
 Very high −0.088*** −0.047*** −0.034 0.053* 0.013 0.041* 
 (0.013) (0.010) (0.018) (0.022) (0.020) (0.017) 
Student Characteristics       
 Female 0.056*** 0.038*** 0.032*** −0.024*** −0.006 −0.018** 
  (0.005) (0.004) (0.004) (0.007) (0.005) (0.006) 
 Free or reduced lunch −0.043*** −0.032*** −0.039*** 0.004 −0.007 0.012 
  (0.010) (0.005) (0.004) (0.010) (0.006) (0.010) 
 English learner status 0.038 0.026*** 0.023*** −0.014 −0.003 −0.012 
  (0.023) (0.004) (0.005) (0.025) (0.006) (0.023) 
 ELA score at t = 0 0.048*** 0.042*** 0.013*** −0.035*** −0.029*** −0.006 
  (0.003) (0.003) (0.002) (0.004) (0.003) (0.004) 
 Math score at t = 0 0.101*** 0.110*** 0.063*** −0.038*** −0.047*** 0.009* 
  (0.003) (0.003) (0.002) (0.004) (0.003) (0.004) 
 School police stops (log) −0.015** −0.002 −0.013*** 0.002 −0.011* 0.013* 
 (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.006) (0.005) (0.006) 
Neighborhood Characteristics 
 Population size 0.004 0.004 0.007** 0.003 0.003 −0.001 
  (0.005) (0.003) (0.003) (0.006) (0.004) (0.007) 
 Residential instability 0.009 0.007 −0.002 −0.011 −0.009 0.013* 
  (0.005) (0.004) (0.003) (0.006) (0.005) (0.006) 
 Concentrated disadvantage −0.013* −0.013** −0.008 0.004 −0.004 0.000 
  (0.005) (0.004) (0.007) (0.008) (0.008) (0.007) 
 Percentage Black 0.017 −0.001 −0.031*** −0.048*** −0.030** −0.018 
  (0.012) (0.005) (0.009) (0.013) (0.010) (0.012) 
 Percentage Asian 0.000 0.002 −0.002 −0.002 −0.004 0.002 
  (0.009) (0.002) (0.002) (0.009) (0.003) (0.009) 
 Percentage Latino 0.006 0.002 −0.010 −0.016 −0.012 −0.005 
  (0.010) (0.005) (0.007) (0.013) (0.009) (0.010) 
 Percentage other −0.001 −0.004 −0.005 −0.004 −0.001 −0.002 
 (0.002) (0.003) (0.003) (0.004) (0.004) (0.003) 
Cohort and Precinct Fixed Effects ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ 
Number of Observations 85,490 109,291 36,396 231,177 231,177 231,177 

Notes: Standard errors are shown in parentheses. SQF = Stop, Question, and Frisk.

a

The effect differences across groups are based on fully interactive models.

*

p < .05; **p < .01; ***p < .001

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