Lifetime pension inequality between primary and tertiary education under policy and mortality scenarios, 1920 cohort
| . | Men . | Women . | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | Absolute Difference . | Relative Difference . | Absolute Difference . | Relative Difference . | ||||
| . | Diff. (in SEK 1,000 a) . | % Change . | Ratio . | % Change . | Diff.(in SEK 1,000 a) . | % Change . | Ratio . | % Change . |
| Observed | 2,944.7 | — | 2.09 | — | 2,325.0 | — | 2.07 | — |
| Uniform Increase in Retirement Age | ||||||||
| One-year increase | 2,803.4 | −4.8 | 2.10 | 0.6 | 2,231.4 | −4.0 | 2.07 | 0.4 |
| Three-year increase | 2,525.5 | −14.2 | 2.13 | 2.0 | 2,046.5 | −12.0 | 2.09 | 1.2 |
| Differential Retirement Ages | ||||||||
| Primary education one year earlier | 2,815.4 | −4.4 | 1.99 | −4.6 | 2,253.0 | −3.1 | 2.00 | −3.2 |
| Primary education three years earlier | 2,580.7 | −12.4 | 1.84 | −11.9 | 2,129.8 | −8.4 | 1.90 | −8.2 |
| Tertiary education one year later | 2,643.0 | −10.2 | 1.98 | −5.3 | 2,129.2 | −8.4 | 1.98 | −4.3 |
| Tertiary education three years later | 2,055.8 | −30.2 | 1.76 | −15.7 | 1,743.5 | −25.0 | 1.80 | −12.9 |
| Pension System More Generous | ||||||||
| Yearly pension SEK 10,000 more to all | 2,970.7 | 0.9 | 2.02 | −3.1 | 2,353.5 | 1.2 | 1.97 | −4.6 |
| Yearly pension SEK 20,000 more to all | 2,996.7 | 1.8 | 1.97 | −5.8 | 2,382.1 | 2.5 | 1.89 | −8.3 |
| Pension System Less Generous | ||||||||
| Yearly pension SEK 10,000 less to all | 2,918.7 | −0.9 | 2.16 | 3.5 | 2,296.4 | −1.2 | 2.19 | 5.7 |
| Yearly pension SEK 20,000 less to all | 2,892.7 | −1.8 | 2.25 | 7.7 | 2,267.9 | −2.5 | 2.34 | 13.1 |
| Raising Minimum Pension | ||||||||
| Minimum pension to SEK 80,000 | 2,934.3 | −0.4 | 2.07 | −0.6 | 2,223.5 | −4.4 | 1.96 | −5.4 |
| Minimum pension to SEK 100,000 | 2,911.4 | −1.1 | 2.05 | −1.6 | 2,081.5 | −10.5 | 1.82 | −11.7 |
| Mortality Reduction Scenarios | ||||||||
| 10% less for all | 3,073.6 | 4.4 | 2.08 | −0.6 | 2,394.0 | 3.0 | 2.06 | −0.5 |
| Primary 10% less, tertiary 0% less | 2,792.4 | −5.2 | 1.98 | −5.3 | 2,236.2 | −3.8 | 1.99 | −3.9 |
| Primary 0% less, tertiary 10% less | 3,225.9 | 9.5 | 2.19 | 5.0 | 2,482.8 | 6.8 | 2.14 | 3.5 |
| . | Men . | Women . | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | Absolute Difference . | Relative Difference . | Absolute Difference . | Relative Difference . | ||||
| . | Diff. (in SEK 1,000 a) . | % Change . | Ratio . | % Change . | Diff.(in SEK 1,000 a) . | % Change . | Ratio . | % Change . |
| Observed | 2,944.7 | — | 2.09 | — | 2,325.0 | — | 2.07 | — |
| Uniform Increase in Retirement Age | ||||||||
| One-year increase | 2,803.4 | −4.8 | 2.10 | 0.6 | 2,231.4 | −4.0 | 2.07 | 0.4 |
| Three-year increase | 2,525.5 | −14.2 | 2.13 | 2.0 | 2,046.5 | −12.0 | 2.09 | 1.2 |
| Differential Retirement Ages | ||||||||
| Primary education one year earlier | 2,815.4 | −4.4 | 1.99 | −4.6 | 2,253.0 | −3.1 | 2.00 | −3.2 |
| Primary education three years earlier | 2,580.7 | −12.4 | 1.84 | −11.9 | 2,129.8 | −8.4 | 1.90 | −8.2 |
| Tertiary education one year later | 2,643.0 | −10.2 | 1.98 | −5.3 | 2,129.2 | −8.4 | 1.98 | −4.3 |
| Tertiary education three years later | 2,055.8 | −30.2 | 1.76 | −15.7 | 1,743.5 | −25.0 | 1.80 | −12.9 |
| Pension System More Generous | ||||||||
| Yearly pension SEK 10,000 more to all | 2,970.7 | 0.9 | 2.02 | −3.1 | 2,353.5 | 1.2 | 1.97 | −4.6 |
| Yearly pension SEK 20,000 more to all | 2,996.7 | 1.8 | 1.97 | −5.8 | 2,382.1 | 2.5 | 1.89 | −8.3 |
| Pension System Less Generous | ||||||||
| Yearly pension SEK 10,000 less to all | 2,918.7 | −0.9 | 2.16 | 3.5 | 2,296.4 | −1.2 | 2.19 | 5.7 |
| Yearly pension SEK 20,000 less to all | 2,892.7 | −1.8 | 2.25 | 7.7 | 2,267.9 | −2.5 | 2.34 | 13.1 |
| Raising Minimum Pension | ||||||||
| Minimum pension to SEK 80,000 | 2,934.3 | −0.4 | 2.07 | −0.6 | 2,223.5 | −4.4 | 1.96 | −5.4 |
| Minimum pension to SEK 100,000 | 2,911.4 | −1.1 | 2.05 | −1.6 | 2,081.5 | −10.5 | 1.82 | −11.7 |
| Mortality Reduction Scenarios | ||||||||
| 10% less for all | 3,073.6 | 4.4 | 2.08 | −0.6 | 2,394.0 | 3.0 | 2.06 | −0.5 |
| Primary 10% less, tertiary 0% less | 2,792.4 | −5.2 | 1.98 | −5.3 | 2,236.2 | −3.8 | 1.99 | −3.9 |
| Primary 0% less, tertiary 10% less | 3,225.9 | 9.5 | 2.19 | 5.0 | 2,482.8 | 6.8 | 2.14 | 3.5 |
Notes: For the 1920 cohort, the observed average lifetime pensions are SEK 2,705,700 for men with primary education, SEK 5,650,400 for men with tertiary education, SEK 2,178,000 for women with primary education, and SEK 4,503,000 for women with tertiary education. For the scenarios of changing the retirement age, we shift the observed yearly pension income to younger or older ages by one or three years. In the case of earlier retirement by one year, the last year (i.e., age 105) of pension income is assumed to be the same as the pension income in the last observed year (i.e., age 104). In the case of later retirement by one year, the first year (i.e., age 60) of pension income is set to 0. For the mortality reduction scenarios, we reduce mortality rates across all ages by 10%.
Source: Authors' calculation based on linked administrative data from Statistics Sweden.
a SEK 1,000 ≈ US$125.