Table 2

Discrete-time event-history analysis predicting the likelihood of taking an additional trip to the United States in four legal categories, 1965–2018

Entry Status on Later Trip to the United States
EWI
Undocumented
Legal
Permanent
Noncompliant
Tourist
Legal
Temporary
THEORETICAL VARIABLES     
Human Capital: Prior U.S. Experience     
 Previous unauthorized border entry 2.120*** 1.098*** 0.486*** 0.517*** 
 (0.067) (0.062) (0.135) (0.148) 
 Previous legal permanent resident entry −5.425*** 4.885*** −2.496*** −15.680 
 (1.002) (0.058) (0.716) (953.331) 
 Previous noncompliant tourist entry −0.108 0.758*** 4.727*** 0.537 
 (0.114) (0.116) (0.154) (0.397) 
 Previous temporary worker entry 0.158*** 0.005 −0.058 4.451*** 
 (0.043) (0.075) (0.192) (0.186) 
Social Capital: Ties to Legal Permanent Residents     
 Parent 0.198 0.267 −0.539 1.923*** 
 (0.176) (0.156) (0.453) (0.439) 
 Spouse 0.715*** 0.032 −0.824 −13.384 
 (0.160) (0.081) (0.487) (2,160.828) 
 Sibling 0.076 0.642*** 0.773*** 0.204 
 (0.078) (0.089) (0.224) (0.321) 
 Child 0.236 0.822*** 0.976*** −2.049* 
 (0.123) (0.092) (0.263) (1.020) 
Social Capital: Ties to Likely Undocumented Migrants     
 Parent 0.255*** 0.439*** 0.594*** 0.217 
 (0.031) (0.056) (0.126) (0.219) 
 Spouse 0.381*** 0.235** −0.139 0.182 
 (0.046) (0.075) (0.170) (0.214) 
 Sibling 0.298*** 0.565*** 0.057 0.342** 
 (0.027) (0.054) (0.113) (0.131) 
 Child 0.284*** 0.358*** 0.537** −0.238 
 (0.049) (0.082) (0.186) (0.254) 
Community Social Capital: Migration Prevalence     
 Prevalence of undocumented migrants 0.017*** 0.005* 0.003 −0.017* 
 (0.001) (0.002) (0.006) (0.008) 
 Prevalence of legal permanent migrants −0.002 0.026*** 0.018 0.027 
 (0.002) (0.003) (0.010) (0.015) 
 Prevalence of noncompliant tourists −0.084*** −0.131*** –0.033 −0.200** 
 (0.009) (0.014) (0.026) (0.065) 
 Prevalence of legal temporary migrants 0.023*** 0.027*** 0.021 0.020*** 
 (0.002) (0.004) (0.011) (0.005) 
Pioneer Migrant Characteristics     
 Average year of first migration 0.007*** −0.019*** −0.002 0.033*** 
 (0.002) (0.003) (0.007) (0.006) 
 Proportion entered as temporary workers −0.033 −0.441*** −0.555** –0.114 
 (0.041) (0.082) (0.202) (0.201) 
CONTROL VARIABLES     
Demographic Characteristics     
 Female −0.168 −0.121 −0.415* 0.339 
 (0.094) (0.159) (0.197) (0.268) 
 Age −0.109*** −0.060*** −0.049 −0.060 
 (0.009) (0.016) (0.034) (0.041) 
 Age squared 0.0004*** −0.0002 0.0000 −0.0002 
 (0.0001) (0.0002) (0.0004) (0.0005) 
 Married/consensual union −0.057 −0.244 0.427 −0.341 
 (0.063) (0.135) (0.231) (0.193) 
 Minors 0.042*** 0.009 −0.066* −0.008 
 (0.006) (0.013) (0.030) (0.032) 
 Years of schooling 0.004 −0.030*** −0.014 0.086*** 
 (0.005) (0.008) (0.015) (0.021) 
Occupation (ref. = not working)     
 Agricultural 0.561*** 1.376*** −0.145 0.810** 
 (0.057) (0.100) (0.190) (0.302) 
 Unskilled manual 0.537*** 1.208*** 0.047 0.616* 
 (0.057) (0.100) (0.161) (0.302) 
 Skilled manual −0.497*** 0.601*** −0.362 −1.307 
 (0.109) (0.162) (0.289) (0.773) 
 Professional −0.723*** −0.159 −0.958*** −0.525 
 (0.122) (0.154) (0.259) (0.443) 
Household Assets     
 Owns land −0.152*** −0.066 0.241 −0.455** 
  (0.036) (0.058) (0.161) (0.151) 
 Owns property −0.002 0.140** −0.342** 0.077 
 (0.027) (0.053) (0.114) (0.133) 
 Owns business −0.662*** −0.871*** −0.321* −0.458* 
 (0.043) (0.068) (0.138) (0.183) 
Binational Context     
 Border Patrol budget (in $1,000s) −0.0001*** −0.001*** −0.0001 0.0001 
 (0.00005) (0.0001) (0.0002) (0.0001) 
 U.S. employment growth rate 0.057*** 0.119*** 0.058 0.100* 
 (0.009) (0.018) (0.040) (0.047) 
 Mexican GDP per capita growth rate −0.001 −0.007*** −0.0003 −0.001 
 (0.001) (0.001) (0.003) (0.004) 
Community Size (ref. = village)     
 Town −0.185*** −0.440*** −0.308 0.105 
 (0.036) (0.076) (0.223) (0.151) 
 Small urban area 0.079* 0.256*** 0.986*** 0.091 
 (0.039) (0.078) (0.210) (0.187) 
 Metropolitan area −0.281*** −0.167 −0.265 −0.736* 
 (0.068) (0.129) (0.279) (0.371) 
Departed on Additional Trip to the United States
Unauthorized
Border Crosser
Legal
Permanent
Noncompliant
Tourist
Legal
Temporary
Period (ref. = 1965–1985)     
 1986–2000 −0.543*** 0.900*** −0.005 2.210*** 
 (0.037) (0.068) (0.146) (0.221) 
 2001–2016 −0.398*** 1.316*** −0.633 2.553*** 
 (0.105) (0.179) (0.438) (0.312) 
Pseudo-R2 0.391    
Person-years 110,679    
Entry Status on Later Trip to the United States
EWI
Undocumented
Legal
Permanent
Noncompliant
Tourist
Legal
Temporary
THEORETICAL VARIABLES     
Human Capital: Prior U.S. Experience     
 Previous unauthorized border entry 2.120*** 1.098*** 0.486*** 0.517*** 
 (0.067) (0.062) (0.135) (0.148) 
 Previous legal permanent resident entry −5.425*** 4.885*** −2.496*** −15.680 
 (1.002) (0.058) (0.716) (953.331) 
 Previous noncompliant tourist entry −0.108 0.758*** 4.727*** 0.537 
 (0.114) (0.116) (0.154) (0.397) 
 Previous temporary worker entry 0.158*** 0.005 −0.058 4.451*** 
 (0.043) (0.075) (0.192) (0.186) 
Social Capital: Ties to Legal Permanent Residents     
 Parent 0.198 0.267 −0.539 1.923*** 
 (0.176) (0.156) (0.453) (0.439) 
 Spouse 0.715*** 0.032 −0.824 −13.384 
 (0.160) (0.081) (0.487) (2,160.828) 
 Sibling 0.076 0.642*** 0.773*** 0.204 
 (0.078) (0.089) (0.224) (0.321) 
 Child 0.236 0.822*** 0.976*** −2.049* 
 (0.123) (0.092) (0.263) (1.020) 
Social Capital: Ties to Likely Undocumented Migrants     
 Parent 0.255*** 0.439*** 0.594*** 0.217 
 (0.031) (0.056) (0.126) (0.219) 
 Spouse 0.381*** 0.235** −0.139 0.182 
 (0.046) (0.075) (0.170) (0.214) 
 Sibling 0.298*** 0.565*** 0.057 0.342** 
 (0.027) (0.054) (0.113) (0.131) 
 Child 0.284*** 0.358*** 0.537** −0.238 
 (0.049) (0.082) (0.186) (0.254) 
Community Social Capital: Migration Prevalence     
 Prevalence of undocumented migrants 0.017*** 0.005* 0.003 −0.017* 
 (0.001) (0.002) (0.006) (0.008) 
 Prevalence of legal permanent migrants −0.002 0.026*** 0.018 0.027 
 (0.002) (0.003) (0.010) (0.015) 
 Prevalence of noncompliant tourists −0.084*** −0.131*** –0.033 −0.200** 
 (0.009) (0.014) (0.026) (0.065) 
 Prevalence of legal temporary migrants 0.023*** 0.027*** 0.021 0.020*** 
 (0.002) (0.004) (0.011) (0.005) 
Pioneer Migrant Characteristics     
 Average year of first migration 0.007*** −0.019*** −0.002 0.033*** 
 (0.002) (0.003) (0.007) (0.006) 
 Proportion entered as temporary workers −0.033 −0.441*** −0.555** –0.114 
 (0.041) (0.082) (0.202) (0.201) 
CONTROL VARIABLES     
Demographic Characteristics     
 Female −0.168 −0.121 −0.415* 0.339 
 (0.094) (0.159) (0.197) (0.268) 
 Age −0.109*** −0.060*** −0.049 −0.060 
 (0.009) (0.016) (0.034) (0.041) 
 Age squared 0.0004*** −0.0002 0.0000 −0.0002 
 (0.0001) (0.0002) (0.0004) (0.0005) 
 Married/consensual union −0.057 −0.244 0.427 −0.341 
 (0.063) (0.135) (0.231) (0.193) 
 Minors 0.042*** 0.009 −0.066* −0.008 
 (0.006) (0.013) (0.030) (0.032) 
 Years of schooling 0.004 −0.030*** −0.014 0.086*** 
 (0.005) (0.008) (0.015) (0.021) 
Occupation (ref. = not working)     
 Agricultural 0.561*** 1.376*** −0.145 0.810** 
 (0.057) (0.100) (0.190) (0.302) 
 Unskilled manual 0.537*** 1.208*** 0.047 0.616* 
 (0.057) (0.100) (0.161) (0.302) 
 Skilled manual −0.497*** 0.601*** −0.362 −1.307 
 (0.109) (0.162) (0.289) (0.773) 
 Professional −0.723*** −0.159 −0.958*** −0.525 
 (0.122) (0.154) (0.259) (0.443) 
Household Assets     
 Owns land −0.152*** −0.066 0.241 −0.455** 
  (0.036) (0.058) (0.161) (0.151) 
 Owns property −0.002 0.140** −0.342** 0.077 
 (0.027) (0.053) (0.114) (0.133) 
 Owns business −0.662*** −0.871*** −0.321* −0.458* 
 (0.043) (0.068) (0.138) (0.183) 
Binational Context     
 Border Patrol budget (in $1,000s) −0.0001*** −0.001*** −0.0001 0.0001 
 (0.00005) (0.0001) (0.0002) (0.0001) 
 U.S. employment growth rate 0.057*** 0.119*** 0.058 0.100* 
 (0.009) (0.018) (0.040) (0.047) 
 Mexican GDP per capita growth rate −0.001 −0.007*** −0.0003 −0.001 
 (0.001) (0.001) (0.003) (0.004) 
Community Size (ref. = village)     
 Town −0.185*** −0.440*** −0.308 0.105 
 (0.036) (0.076) (0.223) (0.151) 
 Small urban area 0.079* 0.256*** 0.986*** 0.091 
 (0.039) (0.078) (0.210) (0.187) 
 Metropolitan area −0.281*** −0.167 −0.265 −0.736* 
 (0.068) (0.129) (0.279) (0.371) 
Departed on Additional Trip to the United States
Unauthorized
Border Crosser
Legal
Permanent
Noncompliant
Tourist
Legal
Temporary
Period (ref. = 1965–1985)     
 1986–2000 −0.543*** 0.900*** −0.005 2.210*** 
 (0.037) (0.068) (0.146) (0.221) 
 2001–2016 −0.398*** 1.316*** −0.633 2.553*** 
 (0.105) (0.179) (0.438) (0.312) 
Pseudo-R2 0.391    
Person-years 110,679    

Notes: Boldface highlights data that are emphasized in the text. SEs are shown in parentheses. EWI = entered without inspection.

*p < .05; **p < .01; ***p < .001

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